Here’s the latest Senate battleground snapshot, using the TPM polltracker polling composite:
Last time we checked was right after President Barack Obama’s ill-fated first debate, so the trendlines represent pre-implosion numbers. I’ve removed three states because of non-competitiveness—Hawaii, Michigan and New Mexico. The Maine “Dem” numbers are actually for independent Angus King, the de facto Democrat in the race.
So what do we get from these numbers? Maine and Massachusetts are pretty solid pickups at this point. Half of that is offset by the GOP’s guaranteed pickup in Nebraska. So Dems +1.
We’re seeing Indiana‘s partisan trends assert themselves as I’ve long argued would happen. Don’t be surprised if Democrat Joe Donnelly ends up with exactly 42 percent on Election Night. The GOP is also closing the gap in red North Dakota. I’m quite a bit more optimistic here because 1) Democrat Heidi Heitkamp is close to 50 percent, and 2) the state is small enough that retail politics matter, and Heitkamp is a master of retail politics. But it will be close.
Arizona is crazy locked up, with some of the highest undecideds around. It’s as if Arizona doesn’t want to elect the Democrat, but they also don’t want to elect the crazy Republican. If my operating theory holds, then Republicans will retain the seat. But if Latinos turn out, then all bets are off. Finally, Democrats should be doing much better in the Nevada Senate seat, also sporting crazy number of undecideds, but Democrat Shelley Berkley has been hit hard by (bullshit) ethics charges, and needs Obama to run up the score to have a chance. Note, however, that Nevada polling has historically undercounted Democratic support by significant margins. If there’s one state to bet against the polling, it’s this one.
Republicans have tightened things up in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but none of the party committees have engaged, suggesting that Republicans aren’t optimistic about them and Democrats aren’t worried.
Wisconsin‘s Tammy Baldwin appears to be a victim of Obama’s stumbles, as the tightening in her states coincides with that of Romney’s gains. This race, along with Montana’s, may be the last ones called Election Night. Finally, Connecticut Democrat Chris Murphy has finally gotten some daylight between him and Republican Linda McMahon.
If the election were today, and all these poll numbers held, Republicans would pick up Nebraska, while Democrats would pick up Arizona, Maine and Massachusetts for a net pickup of two seats and a 55-45 Senate. More likely, Arizona stays Red and we have a one-seat gain which would be amazing enough given how tough the map is for us.
But the potential for bigger gains (or losses) is certainly there, so sign up to help get Democratic voters to the polls in swing states with Workers’ Voice, the largest independent Democratic voter turnout operation in the country. You can participate no matter where you live.
It’s time to GOTV.