After a couple of small-to-medium (smedium?) days of polling girth to kick off this week, Thursday moved back into XXL mode, as a new record total of 65 polls crossed our desks here at Daily Kos Elections since last night.

While there is a massive pile of data here to try to merely digest, much less make sense of, the clearest indicator out of today’s numbers is that we are, once again, on the brink of a time when the national polls and the state polls in the presidential election look like they come from two different elections.

Can Mitt Romney really be leading nationally, but trailing in Florida? Can Barack Obama be down by three points nationally (as one tracking poll states today), and really be up a half-dozen points in Ohio? It is hard to come up with a rational explanation for how that could be. Fortunately for us, some of our brightest minds in the polling game have some excellent theories, and I have a few of my own.

More on that later. For now, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 48, Obama 47 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 46 (RV)

NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP Tracking): Romney 47, Obama 46

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Romney 47, Obama 44 (LV); Obama 44, Romney 43 (RV)

NATIONAL (Monmouth University): Romney 46, Obama 45 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 43 (RV)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 47

NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter): Romney 49, Obama 46

---

CALIFORNIA (Pepperdine School of Public Policy): Obama 54, Romney 33

CALIFORNIA (SurveyUSA): Obama 53, Romney 39, Others 4

COLORADO (CBS News/Quinnipiac): Romney 48, Obama 47

FLORIDA (Mason Dixon): Romney 51, Obama 44

FLORIDA (NBC News/Marist): Obama 48, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 45 (RV)

ILLINOIS (Chicago Tribune/WGN): Obama 55, Romney 36

MASSACHUSETTS (PPP): Obama 55, Romney 41

MICHIGAN (Glengariff Group for Detroit News): Obama 49, Romney 42

MICHIGAN (Gravis Marketing–R): Obama 46, Romney 44 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 42 (RV)

NEVADA (Dane And Associates–R): Romney 49, Obama 46

NEVADA (Suffolk): Obama 47, Romney 45

NEW JERSEY (Philadelphia Inquirer): Obama 51, Romney 40

NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): Romney 51, Obama 48

OHIO (Gravis Marketing–R): Romney 46, Obama 45 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 45 (RV)

OHIO (NBC News/Marist): Obama 51, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 44 (RV)

OHIO (Pulse Opinion Research for Let Freedom Ring PAC–R): Obama 48, Romney 47

OHIO (Rasmussen): Obama 48, Romney 47

PENNSYLVANIA (Philadelphia Inquirer): Obama 50, Romney 42

PENNSYLVANIA (Pulse Opinion Research for Let Freedom Ring–R): Obama 47, Romney 45

VIRGINIA (CBS News/Quinnipiac): Obama 51, Romney 46

VIRGINIA (McLaughlin and Associates for the Allen campaign–R): Romney 51, Obama 44

VIRGINIA (NBC News/Marist): Romney 48, Obama 47 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 47 (RV)

VIRGINIA (Pulse Opinion Research for Let Freedom Ring PAC–R): Obama 48, Romney 48

WISCONSIN (CBS News/Quinnipiac): Obama 50, Romney 47

WISCONSIN (Pulse Opinion Research for Let Freedom Ring–R): Obama 50, Romney 46

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

AZ-SEN (GS Strategy Group for the NRSC–R): Jeff Flake (R) 47, Richard Carmona (D) 41

CA-SEN (Pepperdine School of Public Policy): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 48, Elizabeth Emken (R) 31

CA-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 54, Elizabeth Emken (R) 35

CT-SEN (National Research for the Chamber of Commerce–R): Linda McMahon (R) 42, Chris Murphy (D) 39

FL-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 39 (LV); Bill Nelson (D) 53, Connie Mack IV (R) 36 (RV)

MA-SEN (PPP): Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 44

MA-SEN (Rasmussen): Elizabeth Warren (D) 49, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 47

MI-SEN (Glengariff Group for the Detroit News): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 50, Pete Hoekstra (R) 38

MT-SEN (Montana State University-Billings): Denny Rehberg (R) 43, Sen. Jon Tester (D) 40, Dan Cox (L) 6

NV-SEN (Dane And Associates–R): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 47, Shelley Berkley (D) 41, David VanderBeek (IAP) 5

NV-SEN (Suffolk): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 40, Shelley Berkley (D) 37, David VanderBeek (IAP) 7

NV-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 47, Shelley Berkley (D) 39, Others 8

NM-SEN (Rasmussen): Martin Heinrich (D) 52, Heather Wilson (R) 39

OH-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 52, Josh Mandel (R) 41 (LV); Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 51, Josh Mandel (R) 41 (RV)

OH-SEN (Pulse Opinion Research for Let Freedom Ring PAC–R): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48, Josh Mandel (R) 43

PA-SEN (McLaughlin and Associates for the Smith campaign): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46, Tom Smith (R) 44

PA-SEN (Pulse Opinion Research for Let Freedom Ring): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 44, Tom Smith (R) 41

PA-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 49, Tom Smith (R) 45

VA-SEN (CBS News/Quinnipiac): Tim Kaine (D) 51, George Allen (R) 44

VA-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Tim Kaine (D) 47, George Allen (R) 46 (LV); Tim Kaine (D) 47, George Allen (R) 45 (RV)

VA-SEN (McLaughlin and Associates for the Allen campaign): George Allen (R) 47, Tim Kaine (D) 44

VA-SEN (Pulse Opinion Research for Let Freedom Ring PAC–R): George Allen (R) 47, Tim Kaine (D) 44

VA-SEN (We Ask America): George Allen (R) 46, Tim Kaine (D) 41

WI-SEN (CBS News/Quinnipiac): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 46

WI-SEN (Pulse Opinion Research for Let Freedom Ring PAC–R): Tammy Baldwin (D) 47, Tommy Thompson (R) 45

---

MT-GOV (PPP): Rick Hill (R) 43, Steve Bullock (D) 42, Others 8

ND-GOV (Mason Dixon): Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R) 62, Ryan Taylor (D) 24

---

CA-09 (Tarrance Group for the Gill campaign): Ricky Gill (R) 46, Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) 45

IL-08 (We Ask America–R): Rep. Joe Walsh (R) 48, Tammy Duckworth (D) 45

MN-08 (SurveyUSA): Rick Nolan (D) 46, Rep. Chip Cravaack (R) 45

MN-08 (Victoria Research for the Nolan campaign): Rick Nolan (D) 48, Rep. Chip Cravaack (R) 44

NV-03 (WPA Research for the Heck campaign–R): Rep. Joe Heck (R) 48, John Oceguera (D) 37, Others 4

NM-01 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the Lujan-Grisham campaign): Michelle Lujan-Grisham (D) 55, Janice Arnold-Jones (R) 40

OH-06 (Anzalone-Liszt for the Wilson campaign): Charlie Wilson (D) 49, Rep. Bill Johnson (R) 43

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump…

Daily Kos