During the slow and inconsistent drip of data in the middle of summer, I remember thinking to myself how nice it would be to start getting September-and-October levels of data to peruse every day.
Yeah. What the hell was I thinking?!
There may be small respites between now and November 6, but it would be a safe bet that the polling load will, more often than not, look like yesterday’s (28 distinct polls) and today’s (a “holy crap” tally of 34 distinct polls).
Today’s data is in a strange place. It is far enough removed from the Democratic Convention to no longer simply discount it as “bounce” data, but it also does not really factor in yesterday’s critically important news out of the Middle East. Not that today’s data (especially the downballot stuff) isn’t important, it is just that I’d expect the presidential numbers to shift sooner rather than later. I am not absolutely sure which direction it will go (though I have some suspicions), but I cannot imagine the numbers standing pat.
On to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Democracy Corps–D): Obama d. Romney (50-45)
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (50-44)
NATIONAL (Ipsos-Reuters Tracking): Obama d. Romney (48-41 LV; 45-39 RV)
NATIONAL (Langer Research for Esquire/Yahoo!): Obama d. Romney (50-46 LV; 52-41 RV)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-46)
CALIFORNIA (Pepperdine University): Obama d. Romney (55-33)
COLORADO (American Research Group): Obama d. Romney (49-47)
COLORADO (Keating/OnSight): Obama d. Romney (49-44)
FLORIDA (Consensus Communications): Obama tied with Romney (42-42)
FLORIDA (McLaughlin and Associates–R): Romney d. Obama (50-47)
FLORIDA (NBC/Marist): Obama d. Romney (49-44 LV; 50-42 RV)
FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (48-46)
MINNESOTA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (51-44)
MISSOURI (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (48-45)
MISSOURI (Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United–R): Romney d. Obama (57-38)
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ. of New Hampshire): Obama d. Romney (45-40)
NEW YORK (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (62-34)
OHIO (American Research Group): Obama d. Romney (48-47)
OHIO (NBC/Marist): Obama d. Romney (50-43 LV; 50-41 RV)
OHIO (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (47-46)
VIRGINIA (NBC/Marist): Obama d. Romney (49-44 LV; 49-42 RV)
CA-SEN (Pepperdine University): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 52, Elizabeth Emken (R) 30
FL-SEN (NBC/Marist): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 51, Connie Mack IV (R) 37
MN-SEN (PPP): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 55, Kurt Bills (R) 36
MO-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 49, Todd Akin (R) 43
MO-SEN (Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United–R): Todd Akin (R) 48, Claire McCaskill (D) 43
MT-GOV (PPP): Steve Bullock (D) 44, Rick Hill (R) 39
NY-SEN (Quinnipiac): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 64, Wendy Long (R) 27
NY-01 (Siena): Rep. Tim Bishop (D) 52, Randy Altschuler (R) 39
NY-24 (Siena): Dan Maffei (D) 43, Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R) 43, Ursula Rozum (G) 7
NC-07 (North Star Opinion Research for YG Action–R): Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) 49, David Rouzer (R) 40
OH-SEN (NBC/Marist): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 42
OK-01 (Cole Hargrave Snodgrass for the Bridenstine campaign): Jim Bridenstine (R) 50, John Olson (D) 21, Craig Allen (I) 6
VA-SEN (NBC/Marist): Tim Kaine (D) 46, George Allen (R) 46
A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump… But, first, a quick heads-up to our Daily Kos Elections readers and pals. With the increased polling volume, and anticipating future volume, the Wrap will be scheduled to appear on your intertubes about ninety minutes later than you have come to expect. Look for it at 9:30 PM Eastern, and 6:30 PM Pacific, from now till the election. And now…jump!