• NY-01: The first of two new House polls from Siena University is very good news for Dem Rep. Tim Bishop. He holds a healthy 52-39 lead over Republican Randy Altschuler, which is almost identical to the 53-39 lead Bishop produced in an internal last month. (You know the folks down at Global Strategy Group have to be feeling pretty pleased right now.) And this is by no means a friendly sample for Bishop: Obama and Romney are tied at 47, and Republicans lead on Siena’s version of the generic congressional ballot (see Q. 29) 48-47. Altschuler has an exceedingly difficult task ahead of him, not just because he’d need to persuade Bishop voters to change sides or stay home, but also because numbers like these won’t make the NRCC enthusiastic about helping him out.
• NY-24: The toplines of Siena’s other new New York poll are less rosy for Democrats, but I still view the data overall as good news. Siena finds GOP freshman Ann Marie Buerkle tied with ex-Rep. Dan Maffei at 43 apiece, with Green Party candidate Ursula Rozum at 7. So why am I calling this tie positive? Because Obama is crushing Mitt Romney, 55-36, and Democrats also have an 11-point lead on the generic congressional ballot. Obama’s lead now is actually wider than his 14-point victory in 2008, but even if you think those numbers are too gaudy, the fact still remains that the pool of uncommitted voters in the House race leans Dem. Put another way: Would you like to be a conservative Republican incumbent seeking re-election in a decidedly Obama district while sitting in the low 40s? I wouldn’t.