It’s certainly way too early to gauge the impact of Paul Ryan’s
banquet of bullshit vice-presidential acceptance speech, given that few pollsters would be in the field that late in the evening except in the far West.
But we can at least get somewhat of a feel for how the Tuesday evening roster of speakers played with the electorate. And, the early reviews appear to suggest a very muted reaction. One tracking poll moved a single point in the direction of the GOP, another didn’t move at all.
Only the all-internet Ipsos/Reuters poll seems to be suggesting a “convention bounce” of any substance, having shifted from a two-point Obama lead on Tuesday morning to a Romney lead of the same margin. Even that, however, is a somewhat modest shift in voter preferences.
Of course, the real red meat of the convention has yet to be tested, so it is far, far too early for Republicans to despair or Democrats to gloat. As I noted yesterday, the best sense of the impact of the convention may wait until as late as Labor Day or Tuesday.
On to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-46)
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Romney d. Obama (44-42)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (45-45)
MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA): Obama d. Romney (49-46)
MISSOURI (PPP): Romney d. Obama (53-41)
OHIO (Gravis Marketing): Obama d. Romney (45-44)
CA-03 (GBA Strategies for the House Majority PAC–D): Rep. John Garamendi (D) 54, Kim Vann (R) 39
FL-18 (Grove Insight for the DCCC): Patrick Murphy (D) 47, Rep. Allan West (R) 46
FL-26 (Benenson Strategies for the Garcia campaign): Joe Garcia (D) 49, Rep. David Rivera (R) 40
MI-03 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the Pestka campaign): Rep. Justin Amash (R) 50, Steve Pestka (D) 42
MO-SEN (PPP): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 45, Todd Akin (R) 44
NY-01 (Global Strategy Group for the Bishop campaign): Rep. Tim Bishop (D) 53, Randy Altschuler (R) 39
OH-SEN (Gravis Marketing–R): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 44, Josh Mandel (R) 41
A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump…