I’m willing to make an educated guess here—Democrats are probably kicking themselves in the arse a little bit today as they gaze upon the Lone Star State.
You see, tomorrow, in all probability, the GOP will forsake (yet again!) their more well-funded and “more electable” general election candidate, in favor of a candidate who prays at the altar of ideological purity.
It is this kind of party purge via primary process which gave the Democrats victories in perilous races in Delaware, Nevada, and Colorado last time around. It is that same dynamic that has made Indiana a legitimate pickup opportunity for the Democrats this time around, as Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly finds himself facing teabagging state treasurer Richard Mourdock rather than an Indiana institution in (sooner to be former) Sen. Dick Lugar.
Alas, in Texas, tomorrow’s Democratic Senate runoff pairs a poorly-funded former state legislator and a Some Dude who last name is the same as a famous former Texas politico. It is hard not to see tomorrow’s GOP runoff as tantamount to election, barring an incredibly dramatic change in circumstances.
Alas, a missed opportunity. On to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Democracy Corps—D): Obama d. Romney (50-46)
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-44)
MISSOURI (Mason Dixon): Romney d. Obama (51-42)
OHIO (Magellan for Opportunity Ohio—R): Obama d. Romney (45-43)
HI-02—D (Mellman Group for Gabbard): Tulsi Gabbard 37, Muffi Hannemann 32, Esther Kia’aina 7, Bob Marx 7
MO-SEN (Mason Dixon): John Brunner (R) 52, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 41; Sarah Steelman (R) 49, McCaskill 41; Todd Akin (R) 49, McCaskill 44
MO-SEN—R (Mason Dixon): John Brunner 33, Sarah Steelman 27, Todd Akin 17, Other Candidates 4
NC-07 (Public Opinion Strategies for Rouzer): Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) 44, Dave Rouzer (R) 40
OH-SEN (Magellan for Opportunity Ohio—R): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 45, Josh Mandel (R) 38
TX-SEN—R (Baselice and Associates for Dewhurst): David Dewhurst 48, Ted Cruz 43
TX-SEN—R (PPP): Ted Cruz 52, David Dewhurst 42
WI-SEN (Rasmussen): Tammy Baldwin (D) 45, Eric Hovde (R) 42; Baldwin 48, Mark Neumann (R) 42; Baldwin 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 41; Baldwin 47, Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 37
WI-02—D (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Pocan): Mark Pocan 50, Kelda Roys 21, Matt Silverman 4, Dennis Hall 2
A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump…