Mitt Romney is resurgent!
(Unless he’s not.)
Even if he’s not, though, the schedule favors Mitt Romney. After all, he is coming up on a series of contests in places like Arizona and Michigan, where he should have a real advantage.
(Unless he doesn’t.)
There are two very contradictory themes developing as we head into the weekend before the Florida primaries. On one hand, it is becoming more and more likely that Newt Gingrich will lose Florida, by what looks like it will be a margin in the high single digits. On the other hand, Gingrich’s hand seems to still be strengthening elsewhere, especially in national polling.
The evidence lies, as it often does, in the numbers:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Gingrich 32, Romney 24, Paul 14, Santorum 13
ARIZONA (American Research Group): Gingrich 32, Romney 32, Paul 12, Santorum 10
FLORIDA (Dixie Strategies/First Coast News): Gingrich 35, Romney 35, Santorum 9, Paul 7
FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Romney 38, Gingrich 29, Paul 14, Santorum 12
FLORIDA (VSS/Sunshine State News): Romney 42, Gingrich 32, Santorum 12, Paul 9
MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA): Romney 31, Gingrich 26, Paul 14, Santorum 10
On the general election front, the president still has an edge, and perhaps more importantly, a new poll showed Obama reclaiming the lead from Mitt Romney in a blue-leaning state with special ties to the GOP challenger.
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (45-42); Obama d. Gingrich (48-41)
MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA): Obama d. Romney (48-40); Obama d. Gingrich (51-38)
How to explain Romney’s Florida renaissance with his softening numbers elsewhere? Actually, I suspect that there is a very simple explanation, which I will explore after the jump.