Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: 7/14

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2Q Fundraising:

AZ-06: Matt Salmon (R), $ 172K raised, $ 156K cash-on-hand

CA-20: Jim Costa (D), $ 73K raised

FL-22: Lois Frankel (D), $ 440K raised

IL-10: Bob Dold (R), >$ 500K raised, $ 748K cash-on-hand

IN-02: Jackie Walorski (R), $ 225K raised, $ 267K cash-on-hand

MI-Sen: Debbie Stabenow (D), $ 1.46 million raised, $ 4.1 million raised

MN-Sen: Amy Klobuchar (D), $ 1.1 million raised, $ 3.3 million cash-on-hand

MO-02: Ann Wagner (R), $ 523K raised, $ 506K cash-on-hand

NY-01: Randy Altschuler (R), $ 258K raised

OH-Sen: Josh Mandel (R), $ 2.34 million raised

VA-Sen: George Allen (R), $ 1.1 million raised, $ 1.65 million cash-on-hand

WA-Gov: Jay Inslee (D), $ 492K cash-on-hand

WV-01: David McKinley (R), $ 300K raised, $ 737K cash-on-hand

Senate:

IN-Sen: Dave Catanese finds out how much the CfG is spending on their new ad targeting Dick Lugar that we mentioned Monday: The total is $ 158K, mostly on broadcast.

Meanwhile, Shira Toeplitz has an entertaining look at Lugar’s struggles to run a 21st-century campaign; Lugar hasn’t faced a competitive race since 1982. One place I disagree with her: She calls the fundraising of Lugar’s Republican primary challenger, Richard Mourdock, “anemic.” Mourdock pulled in $ 300K in 2Q. For comparison’s sake, Marco Rubio raised $ 340K in the second quarter of 2009.

TX-Sen: George Bush endorses Ted Cruz! Oh wait, sorry … that’s George P. Bush, son of Jeb and nephew of Dubya. Though his dad was, of course, governor of Florida, “P.” lives in Austin, TX. I’ve gotta say, I’m really liking Cruz’s chances of picking up the GOP nomination. I’d put money on him playing Rubio to David Dewhurst’s Charlie Crist.

UT-Sen: In a follow-on to yesterday’s stunning Senate results out of Utah (click here for our full analysis at Daily Kos Elections), PPP offers some GOP primary numbers. They find Rep. Jason Chaffetz narrowly leading Sen. Orrin Hatch, 47-43. However, Hatch first has to survive a party convention, where delegates will be much more movement conservative-oriented than the Republican electorate as a whole.

Gubernatorial:

NH-Gov: PPP’s new poll of the New Hampshire gubernatorial race shows Dem Gov. John Lynch in strong shape if he seeks a fifth two-year term, but other possible Dems start off the race with weak numbers. Click the link for the full post at Daily Kos Elections.

TX-Gov: Imagine waking up on day in January of 2013, in a world where Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst has become a senator … and Gov. Rick Perry is now president. Horrifying, I know. But since you’re an election junkie, after you check out the citizenship requirements for emigrating to Canada, you’ll want to know who is the new governor of Texas. The answer is … it’s complicated. Click the link for a full explanation of the game of dominoes that would ensue. (P.S. I was just in Edmonton. Lovely town.)

House:

CA-36: Nate Silver makes the very obvious point that Janice Hahn underperformed Barack Obama on Tuesday night … and says this race “looked more like a replay of 2010.” So what? Dem Rep. Andre Carson won 54% in a 2008 special election in IN-07—a seat Obama would go on to win with 71%. Niki Tsongas did terribly in MA-05 in 2007. Mark Critz won the PA-12 special election last year, and obviously we got killed in the fall. I could go on, and on, and on. But really, trying to predict much based on special elections is usually a fool’s errand.

FL-??: A piece on former Orlando police chief Val Demings, who just announced a run for Congress, mentions another possible Democratic name (purely speculative) who could also get into the race: state Sen. Gary Siplin.

MI-09, MI-11: State Rep. Marty Knollenberg is giving up on his dream of avenging his father’s 2008 loss to Dem Rep. Gary Peters. Knollenberg, as you may recall, got drawn into fellow GOP Rep. Thad McCotter’s 11th CD, while the new 9th is a Dem-heavy mashup between Peters and Rep. Sandy Levin. This is a pretty surprising outcome, since Knollenberg served on the redistricting committee; I guess you could call this a funnymander. He did say he’ll run instead for Oakland County treasurer, a position currently held by Democrat Andy Meisner. Knollenberg also offered an amusingly understated take on the possibility of McCotter’s district coming open: “I know he says he’s running for president, but I don’t think he has a real solid chance of winning that at this point.”

NC-13: Former U.S. Attorney George Holding says he’ll run in the new 13th district (currently held by Rep. Brad Miller), joining a large and growing GOP field. The linked article also notes that he comes from a wealthy banking family and could self-fund. But check out that photo—is the guy really only 43, as the piece says? Speaking of Miller, Triangle-area alt-weekly The Indy has a good profile of him as he contemplates his future.

NV-02: Republican Mark Amodei is out with a new ad that’s less crazy racially offensive than his last one, asking viewers if they’re better off now than they were two years ago. Also, his head seems permanently tilted to the left.

TN-03: Former state GOP chair Robin Smith lost last year’s Republican primary to now-Rep. Chuck Fleischmann by a tiny 30-28 margin in a huge field, and almost immediately afterward she started talking about a potential rematch. She just checked in with the local press again, to reiterate that she’s “not going to rule out” another run. Also in the mix is 24-year-old Weston Wamp, son of Zach, who held this seat before Fleischmann.

TX-14: This would be quite the get for Democrats: ex-Rep. Nick Lampson, who represented a very similar 9th CD from 1997 to 2005, says he’s interested in running in Ron Paul’s now-open seat. (You can see Lampson’s old district here.) Lampson of course also managed to win Tom DeLay’s 22nd CD seat for a single term in 2006, before losing that extremely red seat in 2008. On the GOP side, one possible name is state Rep. Larry Taylor, who says he’s “very seriously” considering the race.

TX-36: Republican state Sen. Mike Jackson says he’s looking at run in the new Harris County-area open seat, which he says is “right in my backyard.”

Other Races:

AZ Recall: Gov. Jan Brewer certified the recall election of GOP state Sen. Russell Pearce for Nov. 8. Recall organizers have not yet identified a candidate who could challenge Pearce, though.

WI Recall: Several new recall ads. We Are Wisconsin targets Republicans Sheila Harsdorf and Luther Olsen. Meanwhile, EMILY’s List runs an ad against Dan Kapanke, but given the polling in this district which shows Kapanke all but doomed, I don’t think this is a good use of money.

Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso:

Democrat Hudson Hallum cruised to an easy victory in Arkansas’ HD-54. He won the three-way race with 51%, while independent D’James Rogers came in second with 28%. Republican John Geelan ended up in third place, finishing with only 21%.

Grab Bag:

Dark Money: ProPublica has an excellent, must-read guide to the key entities in the dark money world: super PACs, 501s, 527s, and perhaps even “super-duper PACs.”

House: Nate Silver, using a variant on our PVI/Voting Pattern Index, demonstrates that the House GOP freshmen are, in fact, more conservative than the rest of their party as a whole. He also says that “something very probably has to give,” and outlines a few different scenarios as to what might play out.

NRCC: The NRCC re-launched its “Young Guns” program, their equivalent to the D-Trip’s “Red to Blue,” for the 2012 cycle. Last time out, the NRCC pretty much added anyone with a pulse to their list, and they regularly shuffled people between three various tiers of the program. It was good p.r. for them, because they’d send out a press release every single time and almost always got coverage for it; political reporters with column inches to fill always love nice, simple lists. After quickly figuring out what the NRCC was up to, we stopped breathlessly paying attention to their non-stop changes. Unless something unusual happens, I plan on sticking with that policy.

Redistricting Roundup:

North Carolina: Republicans have also released maps for the state Senate and House, and like the congressional plan, they are quite a piece of work. Click the link for an analysis by Daily Kos Elections diarist elucas730.

Nevada: As redistricting watchers know, the legislature and governor wound up at a dead impasse in the mapmaking process, so the battle has moved to state court. At a hearing on Tuesday, Judge James Todd Russell had a novel suggestion about who should actually draw Nevada’s new maps: have a trio of county registrars do it. But don’t count on it happening that way, because the registrars were all aghast at the prospect of being thrown into the midst of this very politicized process. Upon learning about this proposal, one even responded, “Holy crap!” (actual quote). I suspect Russell will wind up picking a more traditional special master, such as a retired judge.




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